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F1 Fantasy Model Accuracy & Results

A transparent record of how F1GridIQ's published predictions and optimizer have performed, race by race.

This page tracks how F1GridIQ's F1 Fantasy projections and optimizer recommendations have actually performed, measured the same way every time and compared against a few other established F1 Fantasy tools: BoxBox, F1 Fantasy Tools and Race Strategist. The goal is to show real, checkable results — not a claim.

How a race is scored

Each race gets a composite score out of 100, made up of three weighted parts:

• 50% — Optimal team / optimizer performance. How close each tool's own recommended team came to the real best-possible score for that race, known only after the fact.
• 30% — Driver-rank accuracy. How well each tool's ranking of drivers matched how the race actually finished.
• 20% — Point-projection accuracy. The difference between each tool's projected fantasy points and the real points scored, per driver — smaller differences score higher.

Each tool's own projected-points figure is read from the field it publishes for that purpose (F1GridIQ and F1 Fantasy Tools both label it "XPT," Race Strategist uses "FCST," BoxBox shows it as a red "proj" value in its own interface).

Cumulative standings

Composite scores added up across the races graded so far:

Model	After Belgium	Before Azerbaijan	After Azerbaijan	After Bahrain
F1GridIQ	282.70	379.30	479.30	646.65
BoxBox	272.10	366.04	444.36	610.96
Race Strategist	257.70	337.54	422.74	609.71
F1 Fantasy Tools	262.80	353.13	434.19	608.06

Races were graded between some checkpoints whose individual scores aren't part of this published record — only the verified checkpoints above are shown, never a figure inferred by working backward from the totals.

F1GridIQ's points lead over 2nd place, tracked over time: After Bahrain: +35.69.

Race-by-race results

Belgian Grand Prix

Model	Composite score
F1GridIQ	99.80
BoxBox	91.70
F1 Fantasy Tools	88.30
Race Strategist	81.60

Azerbaijan Grand Prix

Model	Composite score
F1GridIQ	100.00
Race Strategist	85.20
F1 Fantasy Tools	81.06
BoxBox	78.32

The real best-possible ("hindsight-optimal") team for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix scored 318 fantasy points. Each tool's own recommended team actually scored:

Model	Team points	Efficiency
F1GridIQ	255	80.2%
Race Strategist	241	75.8%
F1 Fantasy Tools	232	73.0%
BoxBox	188	59.1%

Bahrain Grand Prix

Model	Composite score
Race Strategist	92.61
F1GridIQ	87.97
F1 Fantasy Tools	87.51
BoxBox	79.94

The real best-possible ("hindsight-optimal") team for the Bahrain Grand Prix scored 382 fantasy points. Each tool's own recommended team actually scored:

Model	Team points	Efficiency
F1GridIQ	331	86.6%
F1 Fantasy Tools	306	80.1%
Race Strategist	302	79.1%
BoxBox	262	68.6%

See the full pre-race projections on the Bahrain Grand Prix page.

Race Strategist had the highest overall model grade for this race; F1GridIQ had the highest-scoring recommended team.

An earlier, separate accuracy check

Before the composite scoring above was in use, we ran a simpler comparison: total point-projection error (predicted minus actual, unsigned) summed across 33 drivers and constructors for one race weekend. Lower is better. This is a different method from the composite scores above and the two aren't combined.

Model	Total point error
F1GridIQ	293.80
F1 Fantasy Tools	354.50
Race Strategist	386.00

BoxBox isn't included in this older check — a reliable projection export wasn't available for that race.

How this is kept honest

• Every projection used for grading was recorded before the race happened, not after.
• A graded prediction is never edited once the real result is known.
• Actual results are compared against exactly what was recorded pre-race.
• Where a record is incomplete or couldn't be independently verified, it's left out rather than filled in.
• Future races are added here once they're graded, using the same method each time.

See how these projections played out for specific races on the Bahrain Grand Prix page, or the full methodology on the main F1 Fantasy predictions page.

See also how the established F1 Fantasy tools compare, the F1 Fantasy optimizer, predictions & simulations, driver & constructor rankings, and our FAQ.